Excellent, as usual. I actually met Kahneman: he spoke at the Pentagon many years ago. Of course, no one knew who he was (and the hall was not nearly full).....but having just read their masterpiece, I sure did. I got there an hour early. Only for Kahneman or Metallica.
A very interesting point he made (among many): you can only judge decisions by what that person knew at the time. Not by what happened later; not by what we now see was the right path. So simple. Like all great ideas, equally brilliant.
Stan, amazing that you had the chance to meet with Danny Kahneman. The other Pentagoners truly missed out.
To your comment about judging decisions. It's a classic mistake we all make that we judge decisions by their outcomes (see that as underlined) instead of the process (also underlined) we use to make that decision. To get a bit nerdy here, this is exactly what frustrated me about discussions of decision making at TBS. Take the Anzio example from MCDP 1-3. The authors call it "A Model of Tactical Indecisiveness" and skewer Major General Lucas for not pressing to Rome after the initial landing at Anzio. They write: "Yet General Lucas delayed. Concerned about being over-extended and wanting to build up his logistics ashore, Lucas failed to press his initial advantage of surprise and allowed the Germans to reinforce the Anzio area." It's one thing in hindsight to criticize this call, but I think Lucas' concern was legitimate.
Excellent, as usual. I actually met Kahneman: he spoke at the Pentagon many years ago. Of course, no one knew who he was (and the hall was not nearly full).....but having just read their masterpiece, I sure did. I got there an hour early. Only for Kahneman or Metallica.
A very interesting point he made (among many): you can only judge decisions by what that person knew at the time. Not by what happened later; not by what we now see was the right path. So simple. Like all great ideas, equally brilliant.
Stan, amazing that you had the chance to meet with Danny Kahneman. The other Pentagoners truly missed out.
To your comment about judging decisions. It's a classic mistake we all make that we judge decisions by their outcomes (see that as underlined) instead of the process (also underlined) we use to make that decision. To get a bit nerdy here, this is exactly what frustrated me about discussions of decision making at TBS. Take the Anzio example from MCDP 1-3. The authors call it "A Model of Tactical Indecisiveness" and skewer Major General Lucas for not pressing to Rome after the initial landing at Anzio. They write: "Yet General Lucas delayed. Concerned about being over-extended and wanting to build up his logistics ashore, Lucas failed to press his initial advantage of surprise and allowed the Germans to reinforce the Anzio area." It's one thing in hindsight to criticize this call, but I think Lucas' concern was legitimate.